Peru's Election Result on a Knife-Edge

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio looks at the second round of Peru's Election, what it means and what lies ahead. 

Transcript

Well,  high drama in Peru’s presidential election, but before we get to that, 24 hours ago I was in a taxi in Mexico City, where I found myself  being driven by a Peruvian driver, an unusual occurrence. It turns out he had been a longstanding employee for Japanese car makers in Mexico, but had found his job was expendable amid the vagaries of policies and tariffs which emerged from Donald Trump’s second term. So he has moved into driving to bridge what he hopes is only a gap. Obviously, we got to talking about the election in Peru, and the driver was staunchly of the opinion that Peru’s current problems could not be solved through democratic processes alone. “We need a dictatorship,” he said to me. It was a stark statement, but not the first time I had heard similar sentiments, and goes to the heart of the appeal of the strongmen likes of Nayib Bukele and others, because when the state just doesn’t work for you, what appeal does democracy have? What’s the point of a choice when all that choice brings you is chaos, difficulty and even despair. Throw away checks and balances, is the sentiment, get someone in who can really change things. People will happily give away freedoms if what they are exchanging them for is stability. Of course, it’s a dangerous pact, but a central component of the feeling right across many regions and communities here in Latin America and the Caribbean.

But onto the election itself, where the result is on a knife-edge edge and genuinely could not be closer. Less than 100,000 votes separate the candidates and it will likely take weeks before we know the final outcome, with recounts almost certainly needed. Whoever wins, this is - once again - far from a clear mandate for either candidate. The truth is that Peru is really two countries, at least, with on the one hand Lima and the coastal regions having a particular right-wing economic outlook which favours Conservative Keiko Fujimori, and the regions, indigenous, working class and agrarian tilting much more towards the standard left-wing policies of Roberto Sanchez.

The winner will be Peru’s  ninth president in 10 years. Roberto Burneo, the country’s chief electoral officer, after the last one was sacked and is being investigated after the first round, asked all sides to “act with democratic responsibility.” He went on to say that an official result will be given within 30 days. 

Interestingly, voting rates were down on this second round, despite voting being compulsory in Peru, a likely result of the fact that both candidates are tainted by association with other political figures, Keiko Fujimori with her father and his autocratic rule of the nineties, and Roberto Sanchez with imprisoned left-winger Pedro Castillo, who he has promised to pardon if he wins. 

If Fujimori loses this will be her fifth loss, and in my ongoing conversations with the Peruvian taxi driver, I found myself saying that if - as a candidate - she remained exactly who she was but had a surname which was anything other than Fujimori, she would have won one of those elections by now. Of course she was catapulted to leadership because of her name, but it has also been the single biggest factor which has held her back from outright victory, time after time. 

Tense days ahead in Peru. Let’s see what happens.