High Stakes for Colombia

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio speaks to Carole Walker for Times Radio. 

Transcript

Carole Walker 0:00

Now let's uh head to Latin America because Colombia is heading to a presidential runoff after the first round produced no clear winner. Far-right businessman Abelardo de la Espriella took us a surprise lead over the leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda, though the current president had already alleged voting irregularities. The runoff vote on June the 21st will decide whether Colombia continues peace talks with armed groups or shifts to a more hardline military crackdown. Let's get some more on this by Latin American correspondent Jon Bonfiglio. Jon, uh good evening to you. It's probably um good afternoon where you are.

Jon Bonfiglio 0:48

Yes, yes, it is. Good evening, Carol.

Carole Walker 0:50

Um look, this is a fascinating contest for people who are not familiar with what's going on in Colombia. Tell us about the significance of this presidential battle.

Jon Bonfiglio 1:00

Yeah, I mean, the significance is it's it runs on the back of the fact that Colombia is now 10 years into a peace process, which um internationally has been sort of regarded as being a high watermark of uh of the potential of peace processes because bear in mind that Colombia's been engaged in a in a civil war for the last three three generations. But of course, we're now at a point at which this entire question alongside rising violence brings into play the um uh what's been taking place and of course the the future. And we've got uh candidates on either side of the equation. On the one hand, we've got Ivan Cepeda, who is the sort of the continuity candidate, if you like, following following on from uh the the current president uh Gustavo Petro, he's a senator, uh he um he's a proponent of the current sort of total peace process, and then on the other, uh there's this figure, uh, this millionaire lawyer, Abelardo de la Espriella, who's called himself is known as the tiger. He's slick haired, he's an outsider figure who is saying that it's all been for naught and that everything has to change, and Colombia must militarize and fight rather than acquiesce.

Carole Walker 2:09

It's fascinating, this, and um de la Aspriella has been um described as a as a Trump-like right winger, but he's also a close ally of uh Nicola Maduro, who was um, of course, seized and and charged by the Americans.

Jon Bonfiglio 2:26

So this is curious. I wouldn't say that he was an ally of Maduro, but in his sort of um in his sort of high-profile lawyer status, let's say that he's had a number of questionable clients over the years, um, and uh and his choosing of those clients hasn't really been based around the sort of the values that he's espousing now. So uh those decisions weren't politically motivated. He's more a figure of the likes of um of Nayib Bukele in in El Salvador. He's a sort of a a kind of a slick millennial social media figure, uh, and and yeah, he he is he is somebody who does sort of follow the line of of Donald Trump's policies.

Carole Walker 3:05

And uh how much has Donald Trump been watching or even uh making his views known in this crucial vote? Because of course um he has been trying to um spread his power and influence around Latin America. We've had the threats to Cuba, um the seizure of Nicola Maduro in Venezuela and so on.

Jon Bonfiglio 3:27

Yeah, there's been scant uh parts of the region which have not been affected by Donald Trump. Interestingly, he's not said anything at all, but that doesn't mean that he's not watching. I suspect now that in this gap where there's a much clearer field, because of course we had 14 candidates leading up to this this first round. So we've now got a three-week gap uh before the the runoff, and there's two very clear, distinct candidates of whom you know one is moulded in the shape of um and form of Donald Trump. So I would expect there, uh I would expect that we're going to be hearing, not just hearing, but also seeing uh a pretty sort of stark choice presented in a typically stick and carrot way by Donald Trump as to what the Colombian electorate should do.

Carole Walker 4:08

Yeah, and it's fascinating this. What is your sense, John, of um uh how the people view that this peace process, which you you mentioned at the moment at the beginning, one of these key um aspects of this contest, the the deal um between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla group? Is there a sense in which people are perhaps uh concerned uh that if you have this right-wing hardliner who returns to uh an attempt to defeat this movement militarily, that it could lead to a further upsurge in violence?

Jon Bonfiglio 4:44

Yeah, of course. And this is this is one of those you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't, sort of situations. I think what what what unites everybody in Colombia as a reaction to the peace process is that it is an imperfect peace process. But at the same time, some people say, well, of course it's going to be imperfect, we need to push on with it, but then half the population say, well, it's imperfect, and we must start start again with with something else. And that is that is the stark uh choice that is that is at hand. What whatever takes place in the next few weeks, what's very clear is that there are two very different choices on the table. And uh, and then well, if we're looking at it just as regards sort of the US relation to uh to the United States, that's sorry, the Colombian's relation to the United States, let alone what happens in Colombia itself. We're either going to see a return to the sort of the historic US alliance that Colombia's had with the country and as a sort of collaborative actor in the punitive war on drugs, or we're gonna see this continuation of attempted disarmament and peace process and counterweight to US militarism and um and and drugs policy. But um, yeah, we the two very stark different possibilities.

Carole Walker 5:49

Uh it's going to be a fascinating second phase of this contest. Jon Bonfiglio, uh Latin American correspondent. Great to have you with us. Thank you so much for joining us.

Jon Bonfiglio 6:00

No problem. Take care, Carol.