Sheinbaum's Predicament: Part Two - The Beast Within

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio continues to analyze the news that US prosecutors have charged the current governor of Mexico's state of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, along with nine other Mexican government officials, of conspiring with the Sinaloa Cartel. In this new series, Bonfiglio looks at the context behind the charges, and analyzes what that means for Mexico today, and how it traps President Claudia Sheinbaum in a Catch-22. 

Transcript

Hi everyone. Well, in the first episode, we traced some of the recent history, political and cartel history in Mexico, in order to start to make sense of the charges against the governor of Mexico's state of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, along with nine other Mexican government officials, of conspiring with the Sinaloa Cartel. Now, up until yesterday, that was the ‘current’ governor, but the new news now is that Moya, the highest-ranking official named in the indictment, who has denied accusations that he protected the Sinaloa cartel and helped it smuggle vast quantities of drugs into the U.S. in exchange for political support and millions of dollars in bribes, is now going to “temporarily step down from his post.” Alongside him,  Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil, the mayor of the Sinaloa state capital of Culiacán also named in the indictment, also said he would take leave, as well as denying the charges.

All of this goes directly to the notion of Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum being trapped in a predicament, as the decision - clearly not taken exclusively by Governor Moya and Mayor Mendívil in isolation - points to a collective choice which removes immediate pressure whilst admitting no guilt. But it also directly points to Sheinbaum’s greatest political threat, alongside that of Donald Trump to the north, which is of the beast within. 

There is little doubt that that charges brought to bear by the US have shaken Mexico’s political class, and very specifically Sheinbaum’s Morena party, not because it is new in any way, but because the accusation of someone so high within the echelons of Mexico’ government directly charges - once again - that there is a very thin line separating the government from organized crime - if there is a line at all. 

“My conscience is clear,” said Rocha. “To my people and to my family, I can look you in the eye because I have never betrayed you, and I never will.” Now, the truth is that Sinaloa has always been a case apart, and doesn’t confirm to national narratives, because of course it is the home state of the Sinaloa Cartel, but the truth is that- even given this fundamental truth - that Moya should have been implicated in any way in the kidnap and delivery of ‘El Mayo’ Zambada, the most important cartel kingpin in the state, without the support of another faction, would be political and likely actual suicide for Governor Moya. He made a choice, and that choice was affected by national alliances, and now he is being sold down the river. It is undoubtedly interesting to note that, if anything has changed significantly, it is the US administration not seemingly being remotely strategic or aware of the vagaries of the situation on the ground in Mexico, and seemingly seeking victories. It’s indiscriminate, and very likely it will have medium and long-term effects. 

Which brings us right back to the killing of El Mencho, which is where we left things last time. Up until that point we’d spoken of the parallel existence between the governing Morena party and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which had superseded the Sinaloa Cartel. And then the bombshell news from Jalisco in February that Mexican forces had killed El Mencho, upturning in one action everything we thought we knew about the current state of play in Mexico. Now that kind of thing doesn’t just happen. A complete about turn needs a seismic shift in context, and the only thing which had really shifted was the US administration, with its repeated threatened incursions into Mexico, which of course Claudia Sheinbaum could not tolerate, and what likely occurred in mid February 2026 was that the threat became real and tangible, and that the Mexican authorities had to act, all the while insisting that it was an autonomous sovereign decision. There was immediate pushback by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, but it all felt a little performative. They showed their strength, but their strength was - and is - much greater than what they showed. And there were limited casualties by way of response. In other words, what took place was known in advance, and had been agreed by some elements within the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. It was a calculated decision. Much as was the capture in the last week of ‘The Gardener’, ‘El Jardinero,’ without a single shot being fired. That kind of thing just doesn’t happen. 

And here is the key point. The killing of El Mencho and the capture of El Jardinero was meant to demonstrate to the United States that the Mexican government is pushing back against organized crime, but it is also designed to demonstrate that the administration is not in hoc to these groups, whereas in reality, it does the opposite, because if these had been surprises then the violence in the acts, and the subsequent retribution which would have been enacted as a result of them would have been overwhelmingly severe.  What they indicate above all is - once again - the great predicament Sheinbaum finds herself in, that she is unable to do much about the context not just because it is not in her power, but also because she has no control over her party, over the beast within. Somewhere, this was all decided in advance, and very clearly undertaken in agreement with, and with the acquiescence of, major figures within her party, as well as with organized crime. So we may read the killing of El Mencho as a major change in policy, or action, but really it betrays the greater truth, that the systems in place are primarily designed to perpetuate the systems, not the individuals. Yes, it’s a structure somewhere between the mafia and a corporation. Or both. 

In the final episode in the series we will look at what’s coming next, and whether Sheinbaum can exert any control at all over the situation, or whether she is already a puppet of sorts. Sometimes Donald Trump, without meaning too, sums everything up in a half sentence like only he can. “Sheinbaum is ‘so afraid of the cartels that she can't even think straight’”, he said once. She’s not afraid of them, and she can think straight, but the truth Donald Trump misses here is that without them - and without the support of their party - she has no power. Trump says that Sheinbaum lacks the power to handle them independently. Well, you know, in that he may just be right. The recent demonstrations of strength have actually been a demonstration of weakness.