Preview to the Peruvian Presidential Election

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio looks ahead to the Peruvian Presidential Election, and profiles the leading candidates. 

Transcript

So, here we are, with just a few days to go before the Peruvian presidential elections of Sunday April 12th, 2026, but before we get there, in late October and November 2025 I put together a 4 part series (with an extra episode covering breaking news) on the recent history of Peru and how it relates to the current, highly complex and polarized, political landscape. I’d recommend going back over that and giving it a listen, if you haven’t already. The series is called Peru: A Country in Crisis. 

As discussed in that series, Peru’s current difficulties are part of a deep history which goes back to Spanish conquest and rule, but also which very specifically begin and are accentuated under the presidency of Alberto Fujimori throughout the nineties. All of which leads to a significant social and political fragmentation in the country today, allied to a deep uncertainty, as political upheaval follows political upheaval. It looks and feels something like a death spiral of repeated crises in which a president is appointed, then removed, then appointed, then removed, etc etc. 9 presidents in 10 years. 

So it’s a moot point to wonder whether - whoever is elected - whether they will be able to move beyond this. Added to which, polls suggest that in this first round of elections, no candidate has more than 15% support. Now, that isn’t altogether unusual at this stage, given that there are more than 35 candidates. Of course this will whittle down to 2 after this first round, with the concluding round of the election happening in early June, but nonetheless what is unusual is that there are a number of candidates polling between 5% and 15%, and this, multiplied by significant voter disillusionment and apathy, could mean that an unlikely candidate makes the second round, and then potentially…. - well, who knows.  

According to the most recent polls, published before an electoral silence mandated by law comes into effect, three candidates are strongest. The first and most obvious of these is Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the afore-mentioned Alberto Fujimori. As leader of the Fuerza Popular, she has been an important political figure for almost a generation, and represents the conservative, business-oriented, privatization-motivated center right. But she is also a hated figure who is seen by many as representing an extension of the potentially autocratic tendencies established by her father, which got Peru into the mess it is currently in. 

Next up is Carlos Alvarez, who has recently surged in the polls, and stands polling at about 10%. To some extent, Alvarez is the strongest non-politician among the candidates, arguing the by-now-standard a plague on all your houses line. Alvarez is a well-known Peruvian satirist and comedian who has been a television personality since the early eighties, and has a significant national profile—as well as large followings on social media. Interestingly, Álvarez is one of the few candidates polling relatively well in both urban and rural areas and across most socio-economic sectors, suggesting that he appeals to a diverse cross-section of Peruvian society. He has focused on economic liberalism and tough-on-crime messaging and promises to tackle corruption (not a new message), which is resonating among voters looking for a political outsider to provide stability, address rising crime rates, and control corruption. He has also achieved his broad support by attracting non-traditional voters, especially those who appreciate his anti-establishment,  non-conformist outlook, and those who appreciate the humor and de-professionalized nature of his candidacy. 

Both Keiko Fujimori and Carlos Alvarez occupy the same area of the right-wing. 

And then we have Rafael López Aliaga, also running at about 10%. Aliaga is a former mayor of Lima and even further to the right than Fujimori and Alvarez, meaning that the top 3 candidates are all right-wing and together poll at around 35%. Aliaga has seen reduced support in the final straight, though, and is likely to suffer as voters move towards candidates with a greater chance of victory. 

On the left we have Alfonso López Chau, a former central bank director, and Roberto Sánchez. Both are polling at around 5% but the left in general is weak, fractured and lacking a clear strategic line of engagement after the fall of the Pedro Castillo government. Nonetheless, somewhere between a third and half of the Peruvian electorate is undecided, meaning that there is really no clarity as to the situation which will emerge on Sunday after polls close.