Regional Round-Up: Jair Bolsonaro Finds Creative Way to Reduce Jail Term; Mass State Funeral & Anti US Demonstrations in Cuba; Mexico's Response to US Threats

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio with analysis of stories from the region. 

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Transcript

Hi everyone, and welcome back to Latin America Correspondent. The news cycle still moves on at an accelerated rate, but there has at least been an opportunity to take a moment in the last few days, and it’s pretty clear whichever way you look at it, that the action in Venezuela is not the end of the story, for either Venezuela, or the region, or even the the globe. We are seeing a major shift in the tectonic plates of geopolitics, and who knows where things will go. 

Additionally, it’s a strange time because Latin America has rarely been the center of attention, it’s always been felt as this largely forgotten region - as regards global attention, at least. 

No longer. 

Even beyond what we don’t know, there’s a lot coming up this year, with highly consequential elections in Colombia, Peru and Brazil, as well as a July review of the US/Mexico/Canada Trade Agreement. 

We’ll be here, for all of it, and don’t forget that this year we also have live events happening in New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, Mexico City, San Miguel de Allende, Lima, Bogota and London, likely a few others also. The first of these will be in Mexico City on Friday 6th February, and there is no cost to attend any of these events for subscribers or founding members. You can register using the link at the bottom of the podcast, or by emailing latinamericacorrespondent@gmail.com - for the equivalent cost of a cup of coffee a month, subscribers get access to these events as well as personal invitations to events and happenings. Your support is greatly appreciated, if you are able and have the capacity to assist. You know where we are. 

Equally, if you are linked to a school, business or institution which would benefit from a talk, presentation or round-table discussion, let us know. Again: latinamericacorrespondent@gmail.com

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Today, though, for the regular round-up of stories you may have missed, let’s start with ex-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup. Now, Bolsonaro was never an avid reader, but now that he’s in prison he’s found a novel way of reducing his sentence. 

Bolsonaro’s lawyers applied to a federal judge to include him in a literature programme in which - for every book completed - he has his sentence reduced by 4 days! He can’t choose his own books, however, they come from a prescribed list, none of which are short, and many which focus on themes not known to be at the liking of the former president, including tomes on Brazil’s history with slavery, as well as various environmental books. They also include some classics, including War and Peace, 1984 and Don Quixote. There is a maximum limit of 12 books per year, or 48 days in sentence reduction. 

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One of the side-effects of the US action in Venezuela has been a microscopic focus on some other countries, which are perceived to potentially be the next in line for attention from President Donald J. Trump. Among these, of course, is Cuba, arguably the US’s greatest ideological counterweight over the last half century, and certainly its closest. We’re tracing Cuba’s history in the accompanying series, to give context ahead of whatever lies ahead, because it’s not simply going to be left to be, but here today I just wanted to outline a couple of things from the last week, starting with the return of the human remains of the 32 Cuban soldiers killed in Venezuela during the US military action to remove Nicolas Maduro. The soldiers formed part of Nicolas Maduro’s personal guard, and the loss of life constitutes the highest death toll at the hands of US forces since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. The remains were met by Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel, and were then part of a mass, state funeral, significantly a very rare event.

Then, on Friday, tens of thousands marched in Havana to protest the killings but more specifically in what was a popular show of force designed to demonstrate to the US that the Cuban Revolution is alive and well on the island, which of course it isn’t, but a message it was nonetheless. 

There are some lines from a speech President Diaz-Canel, which are worth noting:

“Cuba does not have to make any political concessions,” he said, “and that will never be on the table for negotiations aimed at reaching an understanding between Cuba and the United States. It is important that they understand this. We will always be open to dialogue and improving relations between our two countries, but only on equal terms and based on mutual respect.”

And then he added, pointedly: “No one here surrenders. The current emperor of the White House and his infamous secretary of state haven’t stopped threatening me.”

Cuba, socially and economically, is broken, but politically the Communist Party is still very much in place.

One of the biggest issues for the country is oil, which had been a subsidized lifeline from Venezuela for years, and which has now dried up, but over the water in Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that Mexico will continue to send crude oil to Cuba and that - given recent events - the country has become an important supplier for the nation. She also added that her administration could become a bridge for dialogue between the US and Cuba, should it be deemed acceptable by both parties. 

Mexico itself is one of the other countries in the spotlight, with Donald Trump saying soon after the military action in Venezuela that something needed to be done about Mexico too - referring to the cartels. Soon after he said that, Sheinbaum - as is her usual strategy - gave a strong pushback, directed at her domestic audience, and then spoke to Trump on the phone to detail exactly what the Mexican Government was doing to combat the presence of Transnational Criminal Organizations in the country. The call was followed by a number of high-profile arrests and Sheinbaum declared that her government was delivering “compelling results”, against both the cartels and as regards slowing migration north through the country. 

Now, the truth of this? There is no shift in the strength of organized crime across significant parts of Mexico, nor is it in the power of the Mexican government to make a difference here, given its broad institutional weakness, especially outside of certain pockets, including the capital, added to which - as we’ve outlined before - the ruling party Morena grew to being a national force at almost exactly the same rate and speed of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Where there has been a shift in Cartel operations recently is as regards a restructuring of operations which has been brought on by the Trump administration’s punitive economic policies on trade, which of course affect organized crime also. But to assume restructuring is absence or defeat, would be a big mistake. 

Additionally, migration northward has slowed to almost nothing, but again this is not a result of the efforts of the Mexican government, rather it’s that potential migrants feel that even if they make it through the myriad difficulties and dangers they would have to encounter on their way north, once in the United States the social conditions in place with ICE raids are even more terrifying. The Mexico/US border is currently quieter than it has been in decades. 

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`Thanks everyone, and just as a reminder, please do share information on the podcast with friends, family, colleagues etc. It’s not about numbers - god knows that this isn’t a mainstream product - it’s about switching the right people onto this, and your help with this is much appreciated. It’s pretty clear that the focus on Latin America isn’t going away any time soon.

All the best for now.