Regional Round-Up: Anti-US Protests in Colombia; Venezuelan Gold & the Bank of England; Chinese Monument Demolished in Panama; Fatalities & Political Implications in Mexico Train Derailment

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio with analysis of stories from the region. 

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Transcript

Hi everyone. 

It’s been a week, as you all know, for Venezuela, Latin America, and all of it of course has global implications, but it’s also been a curious week because it’s a story which has no boundaries, it reaches absolutely everywhere, and from a journalistic perspective it’s felt almost existential. I’ve felt this before at moments of accelerated breaking news cycles, because there is no stasis to a story, and things change moment by moment. Also, previously, where stories have the capacity to evolve, now they can just flip 180 degrees. 

The first time I felt this under Trump was with the tariffs of April last year, when they were announced, backed down on, reintroduced, backed down on, and on and on. It was impossible to keep up-to-speed with, and any analysis you gave could very possibly have expired in the time between having connected to the studio and starting to talk. Of course, it’s part of the made-for-television news cycle instincts of the current US president, and is completely unignorable given the fact that they aren’t just words, but come backed up with the strongest military and economic strength on earth. 

It’s like giving a child deadly toys. There was always this notion that the US presidency is such a globally important choice, that it’s crazy that only the US electorate gets to vote for the position. Well, maybe we’re seeing that now more than ever. 

24 hours ago I gave an interview with the ABC in Australia - the podcast prior to this one - in which they were interested in tracing what may happen next in Latin America. They specifically asked about Cuba and Colombia, but you could just as well pick any leftist administration in the region to discuss, although they are fewer and fewer in number. Sheinbaum in Mexico has another 5 years in office, but Colombia and Brazil go to the polls later this year. In any case, for the moment let’s focus on Colombia, as President Gustavo Petro has clearly been the most strident anti-imperialist voice in the past few months. Trump, emboldened by the action in Venezuela, has on multiple occasions over the last few days suggested that an enhanced military incursion into Colombia was desirable, and - by way of response - Petro called for national demonstrations in protest, which then took place across Colombia.

It’s worth remembering - and easy to forget - that historically Colombia was always the US’s most important ally in the region, but - as with so much else - patterns of history now stand for nothing. 

Towards the end of the day, Petro addressed crowds in Bogota’s central square, and declared that he had just spoken to the US President on the phone. There was a sharp intake of breath from the crowd, as they processed whatever it was that this meant, and were surprised when Petro had said that it had been a respectful conversation, and that the two would soon meet in the White House. He had better go prepared, because - at risk of repeating myself - if we know anything about these meetings, it’s that it will also be designed as a made-for-television moment, and the ambush of Volodymyr Zelensky is still fresh in the mind. 

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Elsewhere, the issue of Venezuelan gold in the vaults of the Bank of England came back to mind. It had been an issue in the last few years as the UK government refused to recognize Nicolas Maduro as the country’s legitimate leader after disputed elections in 2018, thus pressuring the Bank of England not to release the gold to the cash-strapped Venezuelan regime. The gold was worth nearly two billion dollars at the time but the price of gold has almost doubled internationally since then, and of course it’s a question again now after Maduro’s removal, but - outside of Maduro himself - even if the US seemingly recognize the government now - it’s not as though the administration of Delcy Rodriguez is divorced in any way from what went before. If it was illegitimate before, it’s certainly hard to argue that suddenly it isn’t. But, you know, the age of the logical argument seems like a pipe dream these days. 

Yvette Cooper, the UK Foreign Secretary, made a statement in the House of Commons on Monday saying that the UK government still did not recognize the current Venezuelan administration, arguing that the gold reserves being held were a useful tool in ensuring that “we have the pressure in place to have a transition to democracy.” Immediately afterwards she added that of course these were “independent decisions for the Bank of England to take,” which - subtext - were obviously being pressured by the UK government. Square that circle if you can.

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A couple of other stories to mention, which were likely missed in the overt focus on Venezuela in these last few days. The first is an unusual one - although it is related to events in Venezuela and the US intent to remove Chinese influence from the hemisphere - as last week China condemned the demolition of a monument celebrating 150 years of Chinese presence in Panama. It had been in place since 2004 and was removed by local authorities, although Panama’s president also condemned its taking down. Although only a minor monument overlooking the Panama Canal, commemorating Chinese migrants who had contributed to both the canal and railroad construction, it is symptomatic of the broader tension which now exists across Latin America, as the US ramps up political and economic pressure to curtail Chinese presence and influence in the region. We’re going to see this continue to play out in a variety of ways over the next few months and years.

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Elsewhere, a train derailment in the south of Mexico just before New Year piled pressure on Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum. As it happens, that pressure was almost immediately diluted by the US action in Venezuela, as a possible US threat of military incursion into Mexico trumps domestic political difficulties, but it’s a story and a problem which will return.

What happened was that the Interoceanic Train which links the Pacific and the Gulf derailed, killing 13 people and injuring nearly a hundred, and it was not a surprise accident. Two other derailments on megaprojects delivered by Sheinbaum’s party - Morena - had already taken place earlier in the year, and even if they hadn’t, all these projects have been plagued by accusations of corruption, use of sub-standard materials, a prioritising of accelerated timelines for completion, which is to say nothing of the environmental devastation wrought during the construction. 

Sheinbaum, knowing that pushing back on these accusations would simply amplify the noise around them, was conciliatory and said that they would bring in international experts to investigate and make recommendations as to future safety improvements. But the central narrative will not shift, and that is one in which her party and her government have enriched themselves by grafting off vastly expensive megaprojects. 

The accident also drew attention to another ongoing narrative which is causing national consternation relating to Sheinbaum's government, as the trains are run by the military via the Ministry of Defence, so it was the military which delivered the press conferences on the derailment, as well as sealed off the area, and are responsible for its reconstruction, reminding everyone of how the Morena government are engaged in the ongoing militarization of significant - and growing - areas of previously civilian life. 

These were all decisions made by her predecessor AMLO, but she’s stuck with them. Expect the noise around corruption and militarization to grow over time. They are inescapable truths for her, truths which she doesn’t know what to do with.