Regional Round-Up: Outside Factors in Chile's Far-Right Win; Arrest of Ex-Chihuahua Governor Cesar Duarte; Honduras & Election Paralysis; ELN's 'Armed Strike' in Colombia

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio with analysis of stories from the region. 

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Transcript

Hi everyone. 

Well, in a run-off election in Chile, between a fascist and a communist, the fascist won, and by what is the relatively huge margin of more than 16 percentage points. Kast gave a long victory speech in which he - interestingly - distanced himself from the combative rhetoric that seems to be the norm these days, and called for civility and respect for those who disagree with him. It’s also a reminder that when he lost the last election, to Gabriel Boric, he immediately accepted the result and did not question its validity in any way. 

Notwithstanding, Chile is heading into unknown territory, and it’s one of the clearest cases in point of how the Venezuelan economic disaster, and the mass migration it provoked, has been one of the unifying social and political experiences for Latin Americans right across the region, over the last decade. From Mexico City, to Bogota, to Santiago, to Buenos Aires, the forced movement of Venezuelans, and the subsequent issues that the single largest displacement of people in the history of Latin America has caused, has affected every country, every region. 

Alongside that - but not related to it or caused by it - the increase in the power of Transnational Criminal Organizations has had a supplementary marked effect in Latin America. Alongside the ongoing effects of post-covid economics, these three issues are the primary driving forces of what is shaping Latin American politics in 2025, and will continue to do so in 2026, and likely beyond. 

The emergence of pro-Trump acolytes - again - is not related to it (these kinds of figures were always there and generally only ever polled in at around 20%), but suddenly electorates see their brand of previously outlier politics is the only viable solution for desperate times. It’s a moot point, that extremist politics is more about the failure to deliver by standard political structures, than it is about the draw of extremists per se. When, would be the argument, in ‘normal’ times, was extremism ever desired by the majority. 

Nonetheless, we are where we are, and Jose Antonio Kast is the next president of Chile. An open question for him, though, beyond what we know, is to what extent he will be a president for his country, or engage himself with the USA as well as trying to effect broader regional change by expanding his political argument outside of his country. He has a natural bedfellow in Argentina, by way of Javier Milei, and Brazil has a hugely consequential election at the end of next year - and it’s worth bearing in mind that Donald Trump has at least another 3 years to run in his presidency. It’s a shifting context, little doubt. 

Whilst politics in Latin America has always swung back and forth, there’s little doubt that no-one in the region predicted how the US would suddenly find itself engaging with its hemisphere. These are new times, and although in some ways intervention in Latin America is nothing new for the USA, it’s difficult to see another period in history in which US ambitions for the region, and naked protocol in delivering these, has been as tangible as it is now.

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Over in Mexico, the case of Cesar Duarte has been dominating headlines. Duarte - of the PRI (the Institutional Revolutionary Party of Mexico which ran the country for almost all of the twentieth century) - was Chihuahua’s governor from 2010 to 2016. 

Mexican federal authorities arrested him two weeks ago in preparation for charging him with laundering money diverted from the state coffers while in office whilst governor. He had been in the US when he was extradited to Mexico 3 years ago to face embezzlement charges and was under house arrest. He has now been transferred to the infamous Altiplano prison, and the charges he faces are backed up, long and striking.

Now, there are some things worth pointing out here. The first is that this has caught the public mood because - being of the PRI - the story takes us back to a period when that party was root-and-branch corrupt. There’s a famous photo from 2012, often referred to as ‘la foto maldita’ - or ‘the damned photo’ in which Enrique Peña Nieto, on the day he accedes to the presidency, stands alongside the governors of Mexico’s states. Among them are 19 governors representing the PRI, and of those, almost half are now in prison or in advanced stages of criminal proceedings, including Javier Duarte, then governor of Veracruz, who - among the crimes he was sentenced for - was the replacement of cancer treatment for children with sugary substances, and pocketing the cost of the treatment. 

Recently arrested - or re-arrested - Cesar Duarte, is also in the photo, which these days is taken as a symbol of the decadence and shamelessness of the PRI during its time in power.

Now, it’s perhaps no accident that this re-arrest has happened now, as accusations of corruption and links to organized crime linked to the now in-power Morena party refuse to go away, and the arrest of Cesar Duarte takes the media narrative back to a place where guilt lay elsewhere, with the PRI, and which was replaced by - supposedly - a Morena which was to bring transparency to the fore, use all the public funds that had previously gone astray, for the public good, and represent the common man or woman. What I’m saying, therefore, is that there is undoubtedly a political will at play which brings the likes of Cesar Duarte back into the spotlight. It’s a useful distraction tool. 

Now, there is also an irony here, which makes the entire thing ridiculous, because it’s common knowledge that PRI politicians saw which way the wind was blowing, as the PRI lost power and Morena began to gain popularity, and a significant percentage of what now constitutes Morena was formerly of the PRI. So on the one hand, you have the current party accusing the former party of being the real corrupt lot, but on the other, the truth is that they are almost entirely one and the same thing.

The snake may have shed its skin, but it’s still the same snake. 

Claudia Sheinbaum - smart woman that she is - is having sleepless nights, I wager. What gives her power is her party, and her party is composed of fairweather politicians who are only interested in power, and what the proceeds of power brings them. To continue the metaphor, she heads a nest of vipers and she has no argument to present in defence, so all she does is say that it’s all a political plot to discredit her. 

There are 5 years left of her administration, 3 more of which will feature Donald Trump to the north. And, domestically, she is increasingly being backed into a corner. There is almost no-one around her she can trust. 

When an administration sees its project unravel, there is almost always collateral damage. In Mexico, there are so many - deeply serious - variables, and parallel power structures in place, that Sheinbaum’s loss of credibility and authority is likely to have significant, far-reaching consequences. 

On the one hand, the arrest of Cesar Duarte is an obvious holding-to-account of former, corrupt politicians. On the other hand, there’s little doubt that it’s a sign of desperation by the current administration. 

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Also, if you were wondering, no, there is still no sign of a result in the Honduras election. Now the electoral authority is blaming protests and disturbances in Tegucigalpa for being unable to start their final count. On the upside, neither observers from the Organization of American States or the European Union have logged irregularities in the election, only saying that the electoral authority in Honduras demonstrated “a lack of expertise” there was not “any evidence that would cast doubt on the results”. The OAS then added that they “urgently call on the electoral authorities to immediately begin the special recount and to explore all possible ways to obtain the official results as quickly as possible.”

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And finally, a strange story from Colombia, where the National Liberation Army - more usually known as the ELN, the last significant Marxist guerilla force still in operation in the country - undertook what they called an “armed strike”. These incidents are in essence a show of force in rural areas and close down roads, schools and businesses. The ELN say that the action was in response to US military build-up in the area and is something of a mobilisation of forces in response to what they say are threats and intimidation by the United States. 

In theory at least the ELN are engaged in peace talks with the Colombian government, which condemned the “armed strike” as “lacking any sense whatsoever.” At a moment of high regional tension, it’s an unwelcome public reminder for anyone paying attention that the Colombian government does not have autonomy over much of its territory. In fact, that’s probably why the ELN undertook the action, because this reminder is a bargaining chip at the negotiating table with Petro’s government. 

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We’re now ten days away from Christmas. Let’s hope for no surprises. None of us need any more surprises. 

Goodnight!